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• 2008-Mar-8 - Thin Solar Panels are the Future!
NEW YORK (AP) - Makers of thin-film solar products are under pressure to increase efficiency levels if polysilicon costs fall as predicted in coming years.
Thin-film products have a leg up on silicon-based solar panels because they are relatively cheap. That's because they are largely isolated from skyrocketing silicon costs, which have been propelled by surging demand in recent years.
Thin-film products use other compounds to produce power, but convert less of the sunlight they absorb into energy. In addition, silicon prices are predicted to fall starting later this year as producers bring more capacity online.
Those factors threaten to diminish thin-film's cost advantage, making it crucial for companies to boost efficiency.
The industry is working to do that, while driving costs down even further, in part through rapid expansion. Thin-film products are projected to represent 20 percent of the solar market by 2010, according to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, up from about 8 percent today.
'Thin-film will get to higher market share in next two years because it's not supply constrained,' Cowen & Co. analyst Rob Stone said in an interview Wednesday. But, he noted, the overall solar-power (OTCBB:SOPW) industry will keep expanding. 'The market share they're gaining is not from each other but from fossil fuel sources.'
Thin-film solar cells can be applied on glass, metal or flexible plastic and integrated with building materials. That makes them more marketable to customers who want a less visually obtrusive system. They also perform better in hazy conditions and hot climates.
But sticker shock is a major hindrance to solar power's widespread adoption. Installing a solar system on a U.S. home typically costs tens of thousands of dollars, even after rebates. Solar-power bills are also about three times higher than traditional coal-fired electricity bills.
'We have got to close the gap that exists between solar and fossil-fuel costs to the point where the consumer will buy our product,' said Jeffrey Britt, vice president of technology at Global Solar Energy Inc., a private, Tucson, Ariz.-based thin-film product maker.
Global Solar has reached 10 percent efficiency in commercial production. By comparison, Sharp Electronics Corp., one of the world's top solar-panel makers by volume, is working to raise its efficiency to that level over the next two years.
Chief Executive Mike Gering said Global Solar is also considering an initial public offering as it ramps up capacity.
'We're ready to come out of the weeds,' he said.
There is good reason. First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) , a pure-play thin-film enterprise, has seen its stock rise exponentially since an initial public offering of $20 per share in November 2006. It is now more than 10 times as valuable, trading above $200, down from a high of $283 toward the end of 2007. |
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